As the National Energy System Operator (NESO) issues the first wave of new Gate 2 grid connection offers, our new research reveals that the reform, which takes effect this month, is widely seen as investable, yet many fear steel-in-the-ground infrastructure could still be stalled.
The new survey by independent distribution network operator (IDNO), Aurora Utilities, of 800 UK-based senior decision-makers across renewables, property, and infrastructure, comes as NESO informs developers whether their project has been prioritised for a grid slot, with connection dates to follow.
Our survey found that that 68% view the UK’s grid connection reform (Gate 2 and TMO4+ – Target Model Option 4+) as an investment opportunity, with 74% saying they are confident that NESO’s new Gate 2 process will reduce grid connection delays.
Yet optimism is not universal – 46% say these reforms will create greater clarity, but that the benefits will favour larger players with deeper balance sheets and bigger teams to navigate tighter evidencing requirements. “Gate 2 disproportionately favours the big players – they’re the only ones with deep enough pockets to roll the dice,” commented one industry leader.
Confidence is improving – but scepticism remains
While grid reform is designed to cut delays, the survey shows confidence remains tempered:
- 17% are not confident the new Gate 2 process will reduce grid connection delays.
- 23% overall perceive reform as a risk, and 18% specifically point to implementation challenges that may delay returns – a signal that execution, not intent, will determine outcomes.
The research found that equipment shortages could threaten project delivery in 2026. An overwhelming 80% of respondents voiced serious concern that supply chain delays could push project timelines off track, jeopardising their ability to connect on schedule.
“Our data demonstrates that for many, Gate 2 is credible in theory – but its value will be proven in delivery, timetable discipline, and consistent decision-making across regions and technologies,” said CEO of Aurora Utilities, Simon Reilly.
Real money is ready – but projects expected to fall out of the pipeline
The survey also found that six in ten (60%) have committed between £50million and £250million over the next 24 months to build UK infrastructure requiring a grid connection in 2026.
However, that pipeline is not guaranteed to survive the new Gate 2 filter as 33% expect to lose 11% to 15% of their projects,whilst 25% will lose between 16% and 20%, and 18% expect to lose between 20% and 30% of projects during the Gate 2 process.
Mr Reilly commented: “These figures suggest the ‘zombie projects’ with no intent to progress may finally be cleared from the queue. However they also raise a concern: viable schemes could be screened out by process friction rather than any lack of deliverability.”
Grid delays are already priced as a material balance sheet risk
Respondents also quantified the downside of on-going connection delays:
- Almost half say delays in securing connections within the next 18 months would create a financial impact of £50 million to £1 billion for their organisation.
- And, 30% estimate the impact more tightly in the range of £100 million to £750 million, underlining how quickly delay risk scales once projects slip, financing windows close, or construction schedules are reshuffled.
Planned changes for 2026: queue management leads – but policy isn’t the only lever
When asked what policy or market changes would most affect their grid-connection plans in 2026: 44% of decision makers cited changes to connection queue management, whilst 43% felt new capacity market rules had the biggest impact, and 42% cite carbon pricing adjustments.
“Our analysis is a strong signal that developers and investors view grid reform as central – but not sufficient. The most investable market is one where network timelines, market incentives, and revenue stability align. Without that alignment, even ambitious reform can struggle to convert into projects reaching financial close,” Mr Reilly added.
Support for reform – but a sharp warning on costs
Despite broad support for queue reform, Aurora Utilities’ respondents drew a clear red line on affordability: 44% said high connection or upgrade costs would be enough reason not to build a project or to surrender a connection offer, even under the new Gate 2 arrangements.
Mr Reilly commented, “That’s the “hidden trap” of connection reform: speeding up the process is helpful, but if outcomes arrive with prohibitive reinforcement costs, projects still don’t proceed. Investors may welcome clarity – but they won’t fund uneconomic connections.”
What this points to: reform must become delivery
Overall, the findings from the IDNO’s research suggest grid connection reform alone is not expected to unlock delivery at the pace implied by the size of today’s queue. Even a landmark intervention to “clean” the queue could leave major blockers intact.
One industry leader said, “If we don’t give a clear, credible post–Gate 2 roadmap, we’ll clean the queue and still lose the race for investment.”
Mr Reilly, concluded: “The bottom line is that the industry is primed to invest – but our survey shows that it demands proof that the system is moving from administrative progress to physical progress. Gate 2 is a necessary reset but it will only be a breakthrough if it converts queue clean-up into construction certainty. Otherwise, we risk replacing backlog with bureaucracy.”
Read the full report here:
Methodology:
- The research was conducted by Censuswide, surveying 800 senior UK-based decision-makers between 20–30 October 2025. 200 executives were sampled (those with director-level or above responsibility) from each of the following stakeholder groups; investors and lenders focused new UK infrastructure, Independent Connection Providers (ICPs), renewables developers, and property developers.
- The survey results, collected by Censuswide, abide by the Market Research Society MRS code of conduct, ESOMAR principles, and British Polling Council standards.
- In November 2025, Aurora hosted a roundtable bringing together a small group of senior decision makers from the UK’s energy infrastructure sector from renewables developers to investors and lenders. The event was held under Chatham House Rules, but some of their opinions have been included in this release as anonymised quotes.
