Grid reform is accelerating. Planning gates are tightening. Policy intent is clearer than it has ever been. And yet, even when developers are “ready”, projects are still stalling.
Why? Because the physical hardware needed to connect them often isn’t available.
Britain’s grid build-out is now colliding head-on with a global shortage of the very components that make electrification possible: transformers, switchgear, cabling and high-voltage equipment. What was once a background operational risk has become one of the most decisive constraints on delivery in 2026.
When readiness meets reality
Lead times for transformers have been rising steadily for over five years – from around 50 weeks in 2021 to more than 120 weeks on average by 2024. This has been driven by soaring global demand, raw-material inflation, and production capacity concentrated among a small number of specialist manufacturers.
The International Energy Agency has warned that global electricity networks investment must more than double by 2030 to keep pace with electrification – yet manufacturing capacity has not kept up, particularly for grid equipment such as transformers and switchgear. BloombergNEF similarly notes that grid bottlenecks and equipment shortages are now among the top risks to clean energy deployment globally.
Distribution-level switchgear and cabling face similar pressures. This scarcity has quietly become one of the biggest bottlenecks in delivering new infrastructure – from substations and storage assets to EV charging depots and industrial electrification projects.
Delivery risk is no longer hypothetical
Aurora’s research shows that equipment shortages are no longer a future risk – they are a present-day delivery threat.
Looking ahead to 2026:
- 80% of respondents expressed serious concern that supply chain delays could push project timelines off track and jeopardise their ability to connect on schedule.
- Just 5% said they were not concerned at all, highlighting how universal these pressures have become across the sector.
As one developer told us: “Right now reform is putting even more pressure on the supply chain because we can’t invest. Supply chain issues have become more acute because we don’t have the certainty to place orders.”
A quarter of respondents cited supply chain risk – particularly shortages of critical equipment like transformers and switchgear – as the primary reason they may abandon or delay a project, even after receiving a connection offer. This outweighed concerns around connection costs, reinforcement charges, or regulatory uncertainty.
Reform can’t outrun reality
The impact is circular.
Reforms such as TMO4+ are designed to accelerate approvals and clear unviable projects from the queue. But without equipment already moving through the supply chain, projects still risk stalling downstream.
Developers that clear Gate 2 may find themselves waiting years for a transformer slot – undermining delivery schedules, investor confidence and the credibility of reform itself.
This is why early connection design approval from a DNO or IDNO matters. It gives developers the confidence to order long-lead items as soon as a Gate 2 offer is awarded, rather than waiting for the offer before beginning detailed design – a delay that can compound bottlenecks and erode the benefits of reform.
Cost volatility compounds the challenge
Procurement risk isn’t just about timing – it’s also about cost.
Some network operators report hardware price increases of 40–60% since 2022, forcing repeated revisions to connection budgets. The UK’s National Audit Office has flagged supply chain inflation and equipment availability as material risks to infrastructure delivery across energy, transport and defence.
Smaller developers are particularly exposed. Without the purchasing power, forward contracts or framework agreements available to large utilities – and without working alongside an IDNO able to fast-track delivery through verified, pre-approved supplier lists – they are far more vulnerable to both delays and cost shocks.
A strategic blind spot
The policy challenge is clear: the supply chain must be treated as strategic infrastructure in its own right.
That means bringing developers, manufacturers, logistics providers and finance into the same conversation as regulation. Grid reform cannot succeed if it only addresses planning rules while leaving physical delivery to chance.
How we manage supply chain risk as an IDNO
We recognise that traditional G81 processes can introduce friction at key stages of delivery – slowing design approval, procurement and energisation, and adding unnecessary pressure to project timelines and costs.
In response, Aurora has taken a proactive, delivery-led approach to modernising how projects are progressed, focusing on reducing avoidable delay at every stage.
We have introduced clear service-level agreements to accelerate turnaround times for both initial and revised designs. At the same time, we have expanded and validated our list of approved GRP kiosk, transformer and cable suppliers, increasing flexibility and reducing exposure to supply-chain disruption.
Procurement and logistics are now actively coordinated, ensuring critical equipment arrives in the correct sequence to avoid downstream bottlenecks. In parallel, the automated dispatch of statutory signage and substation security components removes common last-minute delays that can otherwise stall energisation.
Together, these measures are designed to give developers greater certainty in an environment where equipment availability – not policy intent – is increasingly the binding constraint.
The bottom line
In short, the UK’s grid reform will not succeed through regulation alone. In 2026, the ability to source, build and deliver the kit is just as decisive as policy readiness.
Until supply chains are recognised as a core pillar of system reform – not a downstream afterthought – delivery risk will remain stubbornly high. Collaborations with IDNOs like Aurora, and close partnerships with manufacturers will help to soften the blow of supply chain pressures.
Read the full report here:
